After India, Taliban's Big Action: Will Stop Pakistan's Water?
The geopolitical landscape of South Asia has once again taken a dramatic turn. After India’s strong stance on water sharing with Pakistan, the Taliban regime in Afghanistan has now signaled its intention to take similar measures. Reports emerging from Kabul suggest that the Taliban is moving toward restricting or stopping water flow into Pakistan through critical rivers. This unexpected move has set alarm bells ringing in Islamabad, as water is one of the most sensitive issues in the region. The development could reshape Afghanistan–Pakistan relations, impact agriculture, trade, and security, and trigger a new wave of political tension in South Asia.
In this article, we will analyze the background, the reasons behind this Taliban action, and its potential impact on Pakistan, India, and the broader region.
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Why Water Is a Geopolitical Weapon in South Asia
Water has always been a critical factor in South Asia’s geopolitics. With growing populations, climate change, and increasing urbanization, the demand for water has skyrocketed. Countries like India, Pakistan, and Afghanistan rely heavily on river systems that originate from the Himalayas and flow across borders.
For Pakistan, the Indus River system is its lifeline, feeding vast agricultural lands that sustain nearly 220 million people. Any disruption in water flow, whether by India under the Indus Waters Treaty or now potentially by Afghanistan through rivers like the Kabul River, would directly impact Pakistan’s food security and economic stability.
The Taliban, aware of this vulnerability, seems ready to use water as a pressure tool against Islamabad.
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The Kabul River: A Lifeline at Stake
The Kabul River, which originates in Afghanistan and flows into Pakistan, is central to this controversy. The river supplies essential water to Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province, irrigating farms and supporting local industries. Over the years, Afghanistan has often accused Pakistan of exploiting the river without offering fair compensation or cooperation in water management projects.
Now, with the Taliban in power, Kabul has revived long-stalled plans to build dams and reservoirs on the Kabul River. If completed, these projects would not only help Afghanistan generate electricity and support its agriculture but also give it leverage over Pakistan’s water supply.
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Why Is the Taliban Targeting Pakistan Now?
There are several possible reasons behind the Taliban’s sudden aggression toward Pakistan on water issues:
1. Border Tensions (Durand Line Disputes):
Afghanistan has never formally recognized the Durand Line as the official border with Pakistan. Frequent clashes between Taliban fighters and Pakistani forces have heightened mistrust.
2. Terrorism Accusations:
Islamabad accuses the Taliban of harboring Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) militants, who carry out deadly attacks inside Pakistan. By squeezing Pakistan’s water supply, the Taliban might be signaling that it will not bow to Islamabad’s pressure.
3. Economic Independence:
Afghanistan faces a severe energy and food crisis. By controlling river water, the Taliban hopes to boost domestic agriculture, generate hydropower, and reduce reliance on external aid.
4. Strategic Alignment:
With India actively strengthening ties with Afghanistan through humanitarian aid and development projects, the Taliban might be exploring ways to counterbalance Pakistan’s traditional influence.
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Lessons From India–Pakistan Water Conflicts
The timing of the Taliban’s water threat is particularly significant. Recently, India has also toughened its stance on water sharing with Pakistan under the Indus Waters Treaty (1960). Following repeated terrorist attacks traced back to Pakistan, New Delhi has considered utilizing its full rights under the treaty, reducing water flows into Pakistan.
Now, with Afghanistan echoing similar sentiments, Pakistan finds itself squeezed between two neighbors controlling its most critical rivers. The possibility of a “water blockade” from both sides is raising serious concerns in Islamabad.
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How Pakistan Could Be Affected
If the Taliban moves forward with water restrictions, Pakistan could face multiple crises simultaneously:
Agricultural Collapse: Major crops like wheat, sugarcane, and rice depend heavily on river irrigation. Reduced water flow would devastate farmers, leading to food shortages.
Power Shortages: Hydropower generation in northern Pakistan relies on consistent water supply. Any disruption could worsen electricity cuts.
Inflation & Food Prices: With lower yields, food inflation would rise, intensifying Pakistan’s economic crisis.
Social Unrest: Scarcity of water could fuel protests, especially in water-scarce provinces like Sindh and Balochistan.
Security Concerns: Pakistan’s strained relations with the Taliban could worsen, possibly leading to cross-border skirmishes and instability.
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International Dimensions: India, China, and the U.S.
Water wars in South Asia are no longer a local issue—they carry international implications.
India’s Role: New Delhi may see this as an opportunity to deepen engagement with Kabul, particularly through dam-building projects on Afghan rivers. This would strategically weaken Pakistan’s position.
China’s Stake: Beijing, heavily invested in the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), would be worried about Pakistan’s instability. It may pressure the Taliban to avoid drastic actions.
The U.S. Factor: Although the U.S. withdrew from Afghanistan, Washington still monitors regional dynamics. Any instability that threatens South Asian security or global water security could bring back diplomatic interventions.
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Taliban’s Dams and Development Plans
According to Afghan sources, the Taliban regime is reviving multiple dam projects on the Kabul, Kunar, and Panjshir Rivers. These dams, if completed, could store billions of cubic meters of water. The most prominent project is the Shahtoot Dam, designed to supply drinking water to Kabul city and irrigation water to surrounding farmlands.
Pakistan has long opposed these dams, fearing they would drastically reduce river inflow. However, Afghanistan argues that it has every sovereign right to utilize its own water resources, especially since Pakistan never signed a formal water treaty with Afghanistan—unlike the Indus Waters Treaty with India.
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Could There Be a Water War?
The term “water war” has been used frequently in South Asia’s geopolitics. With nuclear-armed neighbors like India and Pakistan already clashing over rivers, the entry of Afghanistan into this equation makes the situation even more complex.
While a full-scale war over water is unlikely, covert actions, proxy conflicts, and border skirmishes are very possible. Water is now becoming as powerful a tool of statecraft as oil or gas. For Pakistan, which already battles an economic crisis, the Taliban’s latest warning is nothing short of a nightmare.
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Possible Solutions: Diplomacy or Escalation?
Despite the tense situation, there are potential solutions:
1. Afghanistan–Pakistan Water Treaty: Similar to the Indus Waters Treaty, an agreement could regulate water sharing between Kabul and Islamabad.
2. Regional Mediation: Countries like China, Iran, or even the United Nations could step in to mediate a water agreement.
3. Joint Projects: Instead of confrontation, Pakistan and Afghanistan could cooperate on dam construction, ensuring benefits for both sides.
4. Confidence-Building Measures: Addressing border tensions, trade barriers, and terrorism accusations could pave the way for a peaceful settlement.
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Conclusion
The Taliban’s move to restrict Pakistan’s water is more than just a technical issue—it’s a strategic game-changer in South Asian politics. After India’s assertive approach on river waters, Afghanistan’s stance further isolates Pakistan and exposes its vulnerabilities.
Whether this leads to a new era of cooperation or conflict depends on Islamabad’s response. For now, Pakistan faces one of its biggest challenges: how to secure its water future in an increasingly hostile neighborhood.
One thing is clear—the politics of water has officially become the new battleground in South Asia.
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