Indus Treaty Shock: Pakistan in Panic After India’s Move, Calls for Dialogue on All Issues Including Kashmir
In a major diplomatic twist, Pakistan has shown unexpected readiness to initiate talks with India on all pending issues, including Kashmir, after growing concerns over the possible breakdown of the Indus Waters Treaty. The signal for dialogue came from none other than Pakistan’s Deputy Prime Minister Ishaq Dar, who recently indicated Islamabad’s willingness to pursue peace, maintain the ceasefire, and engage in broader discussions—provided that mediation from the United States remains part of the framework.
The timing of this statement is crucial. It follows India’s increasing assertiveness over water-sharing disputes and its insistence that Pakistan has failed to honor key obligations under the 1960 Indus Waters Treaty. The treaty, brokered by the World Bank, governs water usage from six rivers that flow between the two countries. India has long accused Pakistan of politicizing the matter while secretly aiding terror groups in Kashmir. Now, with reports that India may reconsider its participation in the treaty, Islamabad is clearly rattled.
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Why Pakistan is Nervous About the Indus Waters Treaty
The Indus Waters Treaty is considered one of the most successful water-sharing agreements in modern history. For more than six decades, it has survived wars, political crises, and terrorism. Under the treaty:
India controls three eastern rivers (Ravi, Beas, Sutlej).
Pakistan receives rights over three western rivers (Indus, Jhelum, Chenab).
Both countries have limited rights on each other’s share, with India allowed some usage for irrigation, power generation, and transport.
If this treaty collapses, Pakistan would face an unprecedented water crisis. Nearly 80% of its agriculture depends on the Indus river system, and millions rely on these waters for drinking and irrigation. Any disruption would shake Pakistan’s food security, economy, and social stability.
This explains why Islamabad is suddenly softening its tone towards New Delhi. For years, Pakistan’s narrative has been aggressive—linking every bilateral conversation with Kashmir, internationalizing the issue, and opposing dialogue without third-party mediation. But today, the looming water crisis is forcing a recalibration of its diplomacy.
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Ishaq Dar’s Statement: A Turning Point?
During a media interaction, Deputy Prime Minister Ishaq Dar said Pakistan was prepared to engage with India on “all outstanding issues, including Jammu and Kashmir.” He also emphasized that maintaining the ceasefire along the Line of Control (LoC) is in the interest of both nations. Interestingly, he welcomed American involvement, signaling Islamabad’s willingness to let Washington mediate.
However, U.S. Secretary of State’s proposed visit to Pakistan remains uncertain, highlighting a gap between Pakistan’s expectations and Washington’s actual priorities. The United States has consistently urged both India and Pakistan to resolve their differences bilaterally. Yet Islamabad continues to push for third-party intervention, knowing that India firmly opposes foreign mediation on Kashmir.
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India’s Stand: Bilateralism and No Compromise on Terror
While Pakistan is signaling flexibility, India’s position remains crystal clear:
No third-party mediation will be accepted.
Dialogue can only happen in an environment free from terror and cross-border violence.
Kashmir is an integral part of India, and its status is non-negotiable.
New Delhi has repeatedly stated that Islamabad must dismantle terror networks operating from its soil before any meaningful talks can resume. With the revocation of Article 370 in 2019, India has further solidified its claim that Kashmir is an internal matter.
Therefore, Ishaq Dar’s proposal, though significant, is unlikely to change India’s hardline stance unless Pakistan demonstrates concrete action against terrorism.
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Pakistan’s Diplomatic Isolation
Pakistan’s sudden outreach is also linked to its diplomatic isolation and worsening economy:
1. Economic Crisis – Inflation, a sinking rupee, and mounting IMF debt have cornered Islamabad. Water insecurity would deepen the crisis.
2. Global Pressure – The Financial Action Task Force (FATF) has repeatedly warned Pakistan about terror financing.
3. Regional Realignment – India’s rising global profile, strengthened ties with the U.S., Middle East, and Europe, have left Pakistan with fewer allies.
4. China Factor – Even Beijing, Pakistan’s “iron brother,” has shifted priorities to safeguard its economic projects, urging Pakistan to stabilize relations with India.
All these factors together explain why Pakistan is suddenly calling for peace.
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Indus Treaty as a Strategic Tool for India
India’s hint of re-evaluating the Indus Waters Treaty is more than just a technical dispute—it is a strategic pressure point. By questioning Pakistan’s misuse of the agreement, India has reminded the world that water can be used as a tool of diplomacy and national security.
Experts argue that if India fully utilizes its rights under the treaty—by building more dams, diverting water for irrigation, and accelerating hydropower projects—Pakistan will face significant water shortages. This prospect alone is enough to bring Islamabad to the negotiation table.
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Role of the United States
Pakistan has openly invited American mediation, but Washington treads carefully. Historically, the U.S. played a role in brokering the Indus Waters Treaty, but in recent years it has maintained a policy of urging bilateral dialogue.
For India, any foreign involvement in Kashmir or water disputes is unacceptable. Hence, the U.S. faces a balancing act—supporting stability in South Asia while respecting India’s objections to third-party mediation.
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What Lies Ahead?
The road ahead depends on several key factors:
1. India’s Decision on the Indus Treaty – Will New Delhi proceed with legal or technical steps to suspend or modify the treaty?
2. Pakistan’s Action on Terrorism – Can Islamabad show real progress against terror groups like Lashkar-e-Taiba and Jaish-e-Mohammed?
3. U.S. Engagement – Will Washington push for direct talks or stay away from mediation?
4. Domestic Politics in Both Countries – Leadership in India and Pakistan will weigh public opinion before taking bold steps.
For now, Pakistan’s sudden call for dialogue seems more like a defensive reaction to India’s strong diplomatic card rather than a genuine shift in policy.
Conclusion
The Indus Waters Treaty dispute has exposed Pakistan’s vulnerabilities like never before. Facing a severe economic crunch and the threat of water insecurity, Islamabad has softened its rhetoric and expressed willingness to talk with India on all issues, including Kashmir.
But India, confident in its diplomatic strength and global partnerships, is unlikely to rush into talks without tangible proof of Pakistan’s sincerity. Until then, the Indus Treaty remains a powerful reminder of how water can shape geopolitics—and why Pakistan is suddenly desperate to seek peace.
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